Current economic situation and short term finance
Posted By Mark on August 23, 2010
Those who know me will be surprised to hear humility but I am just a finance guy. I rely on experts to explain everything to me. Today I found an expert who also has the gift of communicating to the lay man.
http://sonykumar.wordpress.com/
I will say Sanjeev wrote it so I can understand it but economics is a bit of an avocation for me so I shall try to make what he says a little simpler.
China as a result of their economic stimulus (much larger then the U.S. has been growing at a very rapid rate. Some of the easy money was put into real estate and there is a danger of a bubble. Being more responsible than the U. S government China wants to put the breaks on the economy before either inflation or a bubble becomes a concern. China is tightening its money supply and will only grow at 9%,half the rate of last year.
That is good for China but bad for the rest of the world. Exports to China have kept the world economy afloat. Germany and Brazil will be particularly hard hit but so will the rest of the world including the U.S.
This slow down has the potential to drive the U.S. into a double dip recession. The U. S. Fed seems aware of the danger and is taking efforts to keep the money supply loose but its tools have been depleted by decades of irresponsible loose credit.
So it seems likely that the recession will continue. This is actually good news for people in certain industries. Typically candy, tobacco, alchohol, entertainment and low priced luxuries like women’s shoes. People enjoy treating themselves with low poriced comforts when the economy is in a down turn.
In other industries one must consider both cutting cost per unit and attempting to grab greater market share. Fewer customers mans that only the strong will survive and of course the company that grabs market share now will retain it when expansion returns.
So one should be careful but also invest because those who don’t will cease to exist.